yang sedang-sedang saja..

Jujur, musikalitas saya sangat rendah. Ga pernah hapal chord-chord music lagu secara lengkap, ga pernah juga hapal liriknya. Memang sih dulu saya suka nge-band dan jadi basist alias pemain bas medioker di banyak band kelas pelajar n mahasiswa, tapi tetep aja ga pernah fasih memainkan menyanyikan n mengingat lagu. Brangkali itu juga alasan saya tidak memilih jalur musik sebagai pilihan karir.

Kembali ke musik tadi, karena tidak banyak tau lagu-lagu yang beredar dari kuping ke kuping, maka dari sekian banyak lagu (entah kenapa) yang saya bisa ingat dengan mudah adalah lagunya Vetty Vera, penyanyi dangdut, yang judulnya “sedang-sedang saja”.

 Lha kok dangdut? Vetty vera pulak. Yaa, ini bukan karena semata-mata dia adalah kakaknya Alam, si mbah dukun. Tapi karena lirik lagu “sedang-sedang saja” nya itu ternyata sangat aplikatif dan riil untuk diterapkan di keseharian kita.

 Simpel aja, coba anda makan terlalu banyak atau terlalu sedikit. Tidur terlalu banyak atau terlalu sedikit. Belajar terlalu banyak atau terlalu sedikit. Main terlalu banyak atau terlalu sedikit. Hasilnya pasti ekstrim dan cenderung berdampak negatif. Kebanyakan makan? Pastilah anda gendut kalau tidak dengan embel-embel kolesterol tinggi, diabetes, dll. Apalagi kebanyakan makan nasi aking, alahmak pasti busung lapar ente. Lalu kurang makan? Ih anda pasti ceking, kalau bagi pria ga gagah (makanya ada weight gain), kalau perempuan pasti ga montok, ga bahenol. Belajar terlalu banyak? Kuper laah. Main terlalu banyak? Pasti gago alias gaul tapi bego

 Makanya mbak vetty akhirnya dalam lagunya bilang “kalau aku jadi kamuu, yang sedang-sedang sajaa, ouoooo”

 Nah ternyata, ini juga berlaku untuk ekonomi. Well, sebagai seorang analis ekonomi yang masih baru di dunia “persilatan” ini, saya tanggap betul apa pentingnya “Sedang-sedang saja” di ekonomi. Lha kok bisa? Maap2 bukannya mau ngajak mikir berat, tapi ga ada salahnya anda singsingkan lengan baju, kerutkan dahi, dan mikir sejenak.

Ga berat kok, “sedang-sedang” sajalah.

Begini, kita ambil contoh simple, kalo kurs rupiah kita terhadap dollar tiba-tiba hari ini berubah jadi 3 rebu perak (sekarang saat tulisan ini ane buat, Rp/US$ 9,400 bok!), PASTI anda bakal ngebut ke toko elektronik beli entah blekberi, leptop, tipi atau apapun. Lha bagaimana tidak? Blekberi bold yg sekarang 5 jutaan, dengan kurs yang merosot ke 3 rebu, akan berbanderol dibawah 2 juta. Leptop? Yang tadinya 10 juta bakal jadi 3 juta. Mobil?? Yang tadinya 300 jutaan sangat mungkin balik ke bawah 200 juta perak.

Dengan situasi itu, anda senang? Iyalah, dapet barang murah kok enggak senang. Tapi ada yang dirugikan ga? Jelas si kokoh-kokoh yang barangnya anda beli itu pasti mumet kepepet babi ngepet. Gimana engga, dia beli (ngimpor) barang dengan kurs 9,400 dan harus dijual ke kita-kita ini seharga kurs 3,000! Rugilah bos.

Kalau kita mau iseng-iseng mikir agak jauhan dikit (alias berpikir secara makro ^^V ), yakinlah bahwa derita kokoh-kokoh itu akan jadi derita kita juga.

Lagi-lagi ceritanya simple. Gini, bayangkan si kokoh tadi rugi. Nah, berarti pendapatannya turun dong. Kalau pendapatannya turun, belanjanya (entah makanan, minuman, baju, hiburan) turun, uang yang dia masukkan ke bank juga turun, dia pun ga akan minta kredit lagi ke bank, dan mungkin juga, dia jadi urung nguliahin anaknya. Nah, artinya para banker rugi (ga ada tabungan n ga ada kredit untuk disalurkan), para pekerja manufaktur juga rugi (produknya ga ada yang beli), pecun-pecun mangga besar juga rugi (lha kokoh pelanggannya tiba2 jadi alim kabeh), para pemilik swalayan juga rugi (lha pembelinya berkurang), para dosen pun rugi (mahasiswa berkurang), dll.

Singkat cerita, perubahan kurs yang cepat dan tiba-tiba itu, kalau mau kita lihat dari skala besar, maka dampaknya terhadap ekonomi bisa sangat heboh. Itu baru dampak dari kurs yang turun alias penguatan kurs lho. Kalau kursnya naik alias pelemahan kurs, dampaknya juga akan sama hebohnya.

Pengen tau ceritanya, ya udah deh singkat aja. Bayangkan kurs rupiah tiba-tiba jadi 15,000 (dari saat ini 9,400). Makanya logikanya kita balik: barang-barang yang tadinya bisa kita beli, sekarang pasti jadi tak terbeli. Kembali ke contoh elektronik tadi, kalau tadinya blekberi 5 juta, jadi 8 juta. Tipi tadinya 4 juta, jadi 7 juta. Mobil tadinya 300 juta, sekarang jadi 500 juta! Alahmak….. kalau begitu jadinya pasti TETUKO alias sing teko ra tuku sing tuku ra teko alias “yang datang ga beli, yang beli ga datang”.

Ada banyak contoh lain tentang gimana pentingnya “sedang-sedang saja” di ekonomi.

Tapi, well, saya ga tega sama anda yang dahinya sudah berkerut-kerut bagai jeruk purut hanya untuk baca 3 paragraf tentang kurs tadi. Lanjut kapan kapan aja deh. Lagian kebanyakan baca juga ga bagus kan.

Makanya, kalau kata mbak vetty vera, yang “sedang-sedang saja…ouoooo”

Ekonomi RI Diprediksi Tumbuh di Atas 4% Kuartal III-2009

Jakarta – Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal III-2009 diprediksi bisa menembus angka 4%, sedikit di atas pertumbuhan ekonomi RI pada kuartal II-2009 yang sebesar 3,99%.

Optimisme itu disampaikan ekonom dari Bank Danamon Helmi Arman dan ekonom BII Samuel Ringoringo melalui preview -nya yang dikutip detikFinance, Senin (9/11/2009). Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) rencananya akan merilis angka pertumbuhan PDB RI pada Selasa (10/11/2009) besok.

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BI Rate Stays, What Lies Ahead?

BI Rate, what lies ahead

(Please look at the attachment for complete report)

Higher inflationary pressure, BI kept its rate

BI decided to keep its reference rate in the level of 6.5% on September 3rd 2009. They seem comfort with this level amid higher inflationary pressure due to fasting month and ready to come Lebaran festivity. They also said that this level is in line with 2010 inflation target of 5% plus minus 1%. With such level real interest rate will be 0.5 – 2 percent (BI Rate minus inflation target).

 

This year, down trending inflation figure remains exist

In general we still be lieve that in 2009 inflation figure is still down trending in spite of a bit higher August and September inflation. Demand power basically remains weak since high credit interest rate hold the consumption of durable goods. Besides, currency volatility is expected to stabilize and reduces imported inflation effect. After Lebaran the most possibility for inflationary pressure comes from supply side in which government plans to increase LPG price.

 

Liquidity remains tight

The biggest issue here is still the same: sticky credit interest rate. For reference, BI Rate has been cut for 300 bps from December 2008 while the credit interest rate was only decreasing for 50 – 70 bps only. The impact is, as we can see in the figure 1, y-y real growth of circulating money (M1) went very slow from January to June 2009 which only 0.94% of average growth amid decreasing 1-month SBI Rate. It shows that monetary condition remains tight in spite of declining BI Rate.

 

Banks are still hesitate to flow the credit

Several reasons are indicated behind this phenomenon. The first, banks still see high credit risk in the real sector. Gloomy export performance and uncertainty over world economic recovery are shadowing those bankers appetite. The second, yield offered by government securities are like a lullaby for them to put the money in. By the data, total money that banks put in the BI and Government securities increased from 21.64% to be 23.38% of total placement (figure 2). At the same time credit placement decreased from 64.89% to be 63.52% of total placement.

 

Two important steps to push credit growth

Among so many solutions have been taken, we believe there are two important steps. One is that government has to assure their spending budget was effectively spurred to support the demand. According to July data, government has spent nearly Rp 40 tn since March 2009 leaving their budget on BI to be Rp 119 tn from Rp 167 tn. It is a good sign and should be maintained though. The second, government has to own better control over yield offered by their bonds. In our view they are supposed to have more bargaining power in yield decision since there is only Rp 17.67 tn to be sold (through bond auction) in four months left which is very achievable. Note that fundamentally Indonesian debt market remains interesting due to maintained rate spread, political stability and excess liquidity of USD in global market.

BI Rate bisa lebih rendah

(sebagaimana dikutip dari detikfinance.com)

Jakarta – Penurunan suku bunga acuan BI Rate yang hanya 25 basis poin menjadi 6,5% dinilai tidak cukup. Bank Indonesia (BI) mestinya bisa menurunkan BI Rate lebih agresif lagi di tengah inflasi Indonesia yang sudah sangat rendah.

“Penurunan BI Rate seharusnya bisa lebih agresif lagi, bila perlu hingga di bawah 6 persen atau antara 5-5,75 persen,” jelas Ekonom BII, Samuel Ringoringo dalam perbincangannya dengan detikFinance, Kamis (6/8/2009).

Ia memaparkan, ada sejumlah alasan yang dijadikan landasan untuk BI menurunkan BI Rate lebih agresif lagi, yakni:

1. Inflasi rendah. Besar kemungkinannya, hingga akhir tahun inflasi tahunan akan berada di kisaran 4 persen plus minus 0.25 persen
2. Suku bunga rendah akan meningkatkan permintaan terhadap Surat Berharga Negara (SBN), menurunkan yield hingga pada akhirnya menurunkan persepsi risiko. Dengan demikian,
3. Perbankan akan ikut memangkas suku bunga kreditnya
4. Suku bunga rendah juga akan mengurangi risiko peningkatan NPL dan memicu pertumbuhan kredit
5. Suku bunga rendah akan membuat rupiah tidak terlalu menguat, sehingga ekspor tidak terancam dan neraca perdagangan kita bisa tetap stabil
6. Suku bunga rendah dapat memacu investasi di sektor riil sehingga dana yang masuk ke Indonesia tidak hanya dana yang sifatnya jangka pendek.

Selanjutnya:

http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2009/08/06/100602/1178343/5/bi-mestinya-lebih-agresif-turunkan-bi-rate

Remains Weak

This week outlook: remains weak with some opportunities

We see concerns over economic recovery will still shadow the global financial market. Global asset allocation will still focus on safe instrument instead of high yield ones. As an impact regional market will still face the selling pressure.

Concerns will focus on demand power as some data such as US Consumer Price Index, Business Inventories and Housing starts will be released this week. Although market forecast consensus say those data will be slightly better, worries over corporate earnings will remains exist. 

As such we believe Government Bonds will be more interesting. A combined of low inflation, better economic fundamentals, and political stability will put the yield lower. There is room for yields to continue down for about 10 – 20 bps in which longer terms offers more interesting yield.

Meanwhile Rupiah is predicted to be in the direction of 10,100 or a bit bellows that level. Since capital flow will continue coming in especially in government-related securities such as SUN and SBI. However we should keep an eye on the profit taking action, capital market outflow and the repayment of FCY debt which could add some pressure on the currency.

Click here for full report:Jul 13-17 2009

Heavy Equipment: Some Opportunities Ahead

Heavy equipment (HE) industry lays its performance on three sectors: Mining, Agriculture and Forestry, and infrastructure/construction.

According to Industrial Ministry, Indonesian HE Industry capacity is insufficient in fulfilling domestic demand need. The latest data shows that yearly average demand for HE industry reached 5,000 units while the production capacity was only 3,700 units.

In 2003 – 2008 yearly growth for HE products value reached 66%. In the same period, based on volume the yearly growth was 48%.

Although used products import is allowed and global recession will still shadow Indonesian Economy for the couple months ahead we believe this industry is still interesting. Resources based economic activity which dominates our economy and infrastructure buildings are two important words.

Click here to download fullreport: Heavy Equipment Report

Another BI Rate Cut

This week outlook: another BI Rate cut

This week some important economic data will be published such as June inflation and followed by BI Rate. For the inflation we predict the rate will be around 3.80 – 4.00 percent (year on year) and 0.20 – 0.40 percent (month on month). Accordingly BI Rate will be cut to be 6.75 percent to continue easing the credit market liquidity and supporting real sector.

Currency market will be influenced by those factors. For this week we predict Rupiah to calmly stay in the range of 10,200 – 10,300 and the 3-month inter-bank rate (JIBOR) will be in the range of 7.20 – 7.45 percent. As such the Lending and Deposit Rate spread could diminish to near 580 bps (compare to 600 bps).

In the debt market, yields are predicted to continue declining for about 30 – 60 bps at all tenors. Inflation expectation combined with declining BI Rate will put some more demand in the market. However we see the trading tone would be a bit slower since foreign investor ownership has declined for about Rp 2 tn (to be Rp 86.44 tn) and cautiously waiting for Presidential Election which will be held in July 8th

Click here to download full report: Jun 29-Jul 3 2009

Apabila Fed Rate naik

Oleh:
Samuel Ringoringo
Analis Ekonomi dan Pasar Finansial Divisi Riset Ekonomi BII

Sebagaimana dimuat di Harian Bisnis Indonesia, 23 Juni 2009

Dalam sebuah kesempatan, seseorang bertanya kepada saya, apa jadinya bila The Fed, bank sentral AS, menaikkan suku bunganya. Apakah rupiah goyang lagi? Akankah ekonomi Indonesia kembali menghadapi goncangan?

Belakangan kita melihat fenomena yang menarik. Rupiah menguat, indeks semakin kekar, dan pasar obligasi begitu bergairah setelah berbulan-bulan lamanya begitu payah. Bahkan, untuk pertama kalinya juga sejak September 2008 lalu sejumlah kalangan justru mengharap terjadinya koreksi agar tidak “ketinggalan kereta” dalam berinvestasi. Lucu juga, ketika jatuh inginnya naik. Ketika naik, malah inginnya jatuh dulu

Baca selengkapnya

Finance Company: Waiting for Banking Liquidity

Despite positive, we remain observant with finance industry recent developments. Our views influenced by declining interest rate, declining inflation rate, and getting better currency volatility.

Combined with government stimulus and general election related economic activities, we believe the demand will stay here.

However, some worries are coming from increasing Non-Performing Loan (NPL) and tight banking liquidity.

Those make us taking a positive but observant view. Thus, better banking liquidity will be the momentum for this industry.

As such, in general we predict the financing to grow 12 percent in 2009. This is in line with our total credit growth prediction of 14 percent

Click here to download full report: Multifinance_May 2009

Vigilant

This week market players will continue to carefully keep an eye on US economic data as recovery hopes have been met with concern about an uncertain job market, rising gasoline prices and higher borrowing costs. Some data like CPI and Housing will take important role this week. Indonesian market will not much in different. Positive news such as easing liquidity and better inflation rate expectation meet concern about Fed Rate hike and, still, rising oil price.

Accordingly, we predict The Rupiah to stay in the range of 10,100 – 10,200 with the tension to weaken. Slowing capital inflow and the need for repayment of FCY debts will mostly influence the Rupiah to continue its recent positive movements. While in the money market easing liquidity will be a bit halted in the anticipation of Fed Rate speculation.

In the debt market trading is expected to be in the slow tone as market players continue to consolidate. As such, the pressure over bonds price is predicted to continue . However there are some spaces for yields to strengthen as these corrections will be utilized for institutional players to get in to the wagon. Accordingly some long tenors will look more interesting as average yields touched 11.50 or more.

Click here for full reportJun 15-19 2009